By Monday Danladi
The International Peace and Development Initiative (IPDI), alongside its global partners, has warned that Nigeria stands at a dangerous precipice, where traditional state protections are increasingly being supplanted by unregulated paramilitary arrangements that risk deepening existing communal and ethnic fissures.
The warning was contained in a communiqué issued at the conclusion of a landmark strategic summit held on December recently, focused on Nigeria’s deteriorating security and humanitarian situation.
Presided over by Dr. Chris Gankon, the assembly warned that Nigeria’s transition into 2026 is marked by an unprecedented convergence of asymmetric security threats, protracted humanitarian emergencies, and a critical breakdown in confidence in the national security architecture.
According to the communiqué, the summit, convened as a high-level virtual conference titled “The Future of Nigeria”, was organized to reassess state protection mechanisms and demand urgent judicial scrutiny of Nigeria’s security policies amid escalating violence and mass displacement.
Humanitarian experts and frontline advocates provided extensive testimony during the conference, highlighting the disproportionate impact of violence on vulnerable communities, particularly Christian populations across the Middle Belt.
Dr. Mike Arnold, a humanitarian worker with over 16 missions to the region, presented evidence suggesting that while official figures place Nigeria’s internally displaced persons (IDPs) at approximately four million, the realistic scale of displacement when accounting for unregistered individuals living within host communities may be as high as 12 million.
Central to the communiqué was a formal demand for an independent judicial investigation into the actions of the National Security Adviser (NSA), Mallam Nuhu Ribadu. IPDI and its affiliates called on the Federal Government of Nigeria and international oversight bodies to probe allegations concerning the arming and deployment of Fulani groups as “forest guards” under the supervision of the Office of the National Security Adviser (ONSA).
“Credible reports and recent interceptions of armed personnel in Kwara State suggest a troubling lack of transparency in the recruitment, vetting, and arming of these auxiliary forces,” the communiqué stated.
The assembly warned that Nigeria’s national security integrity is undermined when specific ethnic or sectional interests are perceived to be prioritized over a unified, professional, and neutral security apparatus.
The communiqué outlined five major action points for national and international implementation. Foremost among them is the immediate conduct of a comprehensive, biometric-supported national IDP census to unlock stalled international humanitarian support and ensure equitable aid distribution.
Government authorities were also urged to guarantee the safe return or resettlement of displaced persons and to provide compensation, education, and rehabilitation for affected communities.
Another key resolution called for a judicial review of security directives, including an independent audit of recruitment protocols for the Nigerian Forest Guard initiative to ensure multi-ethnic representation and strict compliance with the Terrorism Prevention and Prohibition Act.
“We formally call on the Federal Government of Nigeria to urgently investigate allegations regarding the arming or deployment of Fulani individuals as forest guards reportedly linked to security arrangements under the oversight of the NSA,” IPDI stated.
The conference emphasized that any such actions—if substantiated—must be subjected to transparent legislative and judicial scrutiny to prevent ethnic profiling, rebuild public trust, and avert further national polarization.
Participants also called for equitable self-protection rights, urging legal reforms that allow all communities, especially those systematically targeted by non-state actors, to organize lawful community-based protection under a clear national framework.
On international cooperation, the assembly demanded a joint counter-terrorism audit with global partners, including the US–Nigeria Joint Working Group, aimed at identifying and sanctioning domestic and international financiers of terror networks operating across Nigeria and the wider Sahel.
Beyond condemnation, the communiqué stressed the need for decisive legal consequences, calling for the arrest, investigation, and prosecution of individuals and networks found to be sponsoring, financing, or facilitating militia violence.
“Justice must not only be declared; it must be seen to be enforced through transparent judicial processes that cut across status, ethnicity, and influence,” the assembly declared.
The communiqué further called for leadership recalibration through the promotion of the “Issachar Leadership Model,” defined by strategic foresight, moral clarity, and commitment to the common good across governance and civil society.
IPDI stressed that Nigeria’s survival depends on restoring trust between the state and its citizens and urged the international community to move from “passive observation” to “active accountability” to prevent a full-scale humanitarian collapse in Africa’s most populous nation.
The communiqué, issued in the spirit of constructive national dialogue, reflects the collective resolutions of diplomats, security analysts, faith leaders, and humanitarian advocates who participated in the summit.
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